President Trump has confirmed he has read Iran's latest terms for a peace deal, calls them totally unacceptable, unclear what comes next.
- Last week President Trump told Iran they had one week to agree a deal or they would get bombed. Iran has communicated an offer to the USA which Trump confirmed he read a few hours ago, stating that he "didn't like it" and that the terms are "totally unacceptable". President Trump's red line seems to be removal of all enriched uranium and the destruction of whatever remains of Iran's nuclear program. Iran is flatly refusing this, proposing instead to dilute the uranium and agree a partial enrichment moratorium for a number of years. Trump is again making threats against Iran, and his formal ultimatum deadline is next Thursday, but Trump's threats have lost credibility as he has failed to follow through on them several times now. Trump is going to meet President Xi on Thursday, so if he is going back to war, that will almost certainly not happen until next weekend.
- The more bellicose rhetoric has pushed Crude Oil and Gasoline a little higher, but not by anything dramatic. Both are still off their recent highs. I am sitting on the sidelines with these.
- The prediction site Polymarket now sees a peace deal between the USA and Iran unlikely to happen until the second half of 2026.
- Despite the war talk, the stock markets which have been doing well lately continue to do so, with the KOSPI Composite Index gapping higher to make a strong new high today, and the US S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index continuing to trade near Friday's highs. I am long of all three indices which have been looking very bullish and trading in blue sky.
- In the Forex market, the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open was the Canadian Dollar, while the Swiss Franc has been the weakest. The US Dollar has firmed slightly on Trump's angry rhetoric on Iran.
- There are no potentially high-impact data releases scheduled today, so the USA / Iran interaction and any news or rumours there will likely be the events to watch out for today.