At the Bank of Japan's policy meeting earlier today, board members voted to leave rates on hold, but three members voted to hike.
- The Bank of Japan's policy meeting today saw a "hawkish hold" - rates were left untouched as expected, but three members voted to raise the interest rate by 0.25%. This was unexpected and pushed the Japanese Yen slightly higher, although not by much.
- Major US equity indices the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 again reached new record highs yesterday, following Friday's record high close. Trend traders will already be long of these two indices, as well as other very bullish indices such as the KOSPI Composite Index. US persons can access the KOSPI via the ETF EWY.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains closed by Iran, and Iran remains blockaded by the USA. This is starting a new move higher in energies such as crude oil and in gasoline futures, with the latter rising firmly yesterday to a new long-term high. If you want to follow trend traders and be long of gasoline, but the futures are too big for you, there is a US ETF ticker UGA which is affordable. I am long of it.
- President Trump is considering an Iranian proposal to end the war in return for some kind of opening of the Strait of Hormuz. It seems very unlikely to be accepted as it completely ignores the nuclear issue. Secretary Rubio has just been publicly trashing the proposal. The US military buildup in the region continues and President Trump ponders his next move - whether to continue with the economic blockade, or whether to combine that with new military action. Prediction markets do not forecast a resumption of the war. Polymarket implies combat will be fully over by the end of June, but does not see a negotiated settlement as likely to happen within the same time frame.
- Bitcoin continues to trade lower after testing and rejecting the long-term high price yesterday just below $80,000.
- The Forex market was relatively quiet during the Asian session. The strongest major currency since the Tokyo open was the Japanese Yen, while the New Zealand Dollar has been the weakest. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading slightly lower but remains above ¥159. Many trend traders will still be long of USD/JPY.
- There will be a release of Australian CPI (inflation) data very early tomorrow which is expected to show a strong jump in the annualized rate from 3.7% to 4.8%.