The German DAX continues to see a lot of noise, but at this point in time, we have to watch energy inflation and the industrial base.
DAX
The German index has rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, testing the 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people watch as potential support and trend-defining action.
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The German 10-year yield is back below the 3.50 level, and that does help. With this being said, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior. With the market being between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA, a lot of times you get a bit of a squeeze.
The 50-day EMA at the 25,610 euro level offers a bit of a resistance barrier.
If we can break above there, then the 26,000 euro level could be the next target. If we were to break down below the candlestick from the Thursday session, then the market could drop down to the 24,000 euro level.
Ultimately, this is probably moving more on interest rates, and interest rates moving on energy headlines, than anything else. There are concerns about the flow of energy into the German industrial base, and as long as that's going to be the case, then you've got a situation where this market gets pretty noisy, gets pretty choppy, but is trying to find a reason to rally.
What we need to see are these rates continue to drop and good news coming out of the energy sector. Then that might start to have people focus on the fact that the German government is spending a lot on infrastructure. We'll just have to wait and see.
We are still bullish-looking, but we're testing an area that is significant support and resistance due to market memory.
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