The NASDAQ 100 continues to consolidate in general, as we are looking at a market that has a lot to think about. This includes AI fatigue and debt load, interest rates, and geopolitics.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 has fallen a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to consolidate and wait for the Federal Reserve. Not necessarily the announcement—we know that the market has a 92% probability of an interest rate hike. It is going to be more about the press conference and the statement.
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The biggest problem at the moment is the fact that the 10-year yield continues to hover around 5%, but while that is bearish, if you look at the way the NASDAQ has behaved over the last 3 weeks or so, it has actually weathered this quite well. Sometimes it is not so much about what a market should do; it is more about what a market actually does.
The AI trade, of course, is a major factor in what's going on
In this environment, it looks a whole lot like a market that is simply ignoring a lot of traditionally bearish things and looks to continue to find its way sideways, as the sellers just do not have the momentum. The AI trade, of course, is a major factor in what is going on, and the sentiment is kind of weak, as are higher oil prices.
Really, the biggest index movers include NVIDIA and Intel recovering a bit after yesterday's nastiness. The consolidation, I think, bodes well for this index, but we need to get through that press conference with Kevin Warsh before you can sound the all-clear for momentum to return.
Expect sideways, choppy action. Personally, without some type of external factor creeping into the picture, I do not expect the NASDAQ to be very lively until after the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
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