Short Trade Idea
Enter your short position between $191.50 (an intermediate horizontal support level) and $199.24 (an intermediate horizontal resistance level).
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Market Index Analysis
- Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, the S&P 100 Index, and the S&P 500 Index.
- All three indices remain near all-time highs, but bearish catalysts continue to accumulate, driven by rising inflationary pressures.
- The Bull Bear Power Indicator for the S&P 500 Index is bullish with a negative divergence.
Market Sentiment Analysis
Equity futures are drifting lower this morning following a two-day sell-off across the tech sector and ahead of tomorrow’s NVIDIA earnings, where expectations are sky-high to keep the AI bubble inflating. US President Trump halted today’s planned attack on Iran after leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE asked him for a delay. Inflation worries and surging bond yields have cut through the AI mania and are now worrying some investors.
Chevron Fundamental Analysis
Chevron is an oil and gas company active in over 180 countries. It is a vertically integrated company active in exploration, production, refining, marketing, transport, petrochemicals, and power generation.
So, why am I bearish on CVX following a mixed earnings report?
Chevron missed revenue expectations of $51.86 billion, reporting $48.61 billion, while earnings per share of $1.41 eclipsed estimates of $1.00. I turned bearish amid an accounting drag from derivative hedges, following CFO Bonner’s confirmation of a $2.9 billion paper loss on physical cargo contracts due to mark-to-market adjustments. Valuations are high, and operating margins could contract further in 2026 amid volatility in the oil market.
Metric | Value | Verdict |
P/E Ratio | 34.11 | Bearish |
P/B Ratio | 2.07 | Bearish |
PEG Ratio | 0.84 | Bullish |
Current Ratio | 1.09 | Bearish |
ROIC-WACC Ratio | Negative | Bearish |
Chevron Fundamental Analysis Snapshot
The price-to-earning (P/E) ratio of 34.11 makes CVX an expensive stock. By comparison, the P/E ratio for the S&P 500 Index is 31.88.
The average analyst price target for CVX is $214.70. This suggests moderate upside potential with rising downside risks.
Chevron Technical Analysis
Today’s CVX Signal
Chevron Price Chart
- The CVX D1 chart shows price action inside a bearish price channel.
- It also shows price action between its descending 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Fan levels.
- The Bull Bear Power Indicator is bullish with an ascending trendline, hinting at more short-term volatility potential.
- The average bearish trading volumes are higher than the average bullish trading volumes.
- CVX moved lower as the S&P 500 Index recorded new all-time highs, a significant bearish confirmation.
My CVX Short Stock Trade
- CVX Entry Level: Between $191.50 and $199.24
- CVX Take Profit: Between $151.25 and $157.99
- CVX Stop Loss: Between $209.79 and $214.70
- Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.20
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