The NASDAQ 100 was very noisy, as the interest rates in the US jumped.
The NASDAQ 100 has been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as the markets in Asia sold off quite drastically due to the address by Donald Trump suggesting that the United States would be at war with Iran for at least a couple of weeks.
The ironic thing about this is that traders were reacting to the same headlines that had been in the news for 3 days. So, once you saw the Americans come back on board you saw a nice recovery.
The Nasdaq 100 is now above the 23,800 level and sitting just below the 200-day EMA. The question at this point is what we do with Good Friday being the biggest factor in the session on Friday as the New York Stock Exchange will obviously be closed and as a result whatever you have as far as a position right now is what you will be living with for a while.
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Geopolitical Drivers and Interest Rate Outlook
Ultimately, I think you have a scenario where traders are going to continue to try to sort out what the longer-term outlook for interest rates are going to be because right now that is just simply what is driving almost all markets. In this environment I just don't know how that changes unless the war ends and even then, the interest rate situation would be of great interest, at least for the short term.
As things stand right now, I do think the market got caught being a little overly aggressive and a little overly dramatic and we've seen a nice correction since then. I do think eventually we will go higher. The market has been very resilient, all things considered, and in this environment that's actually pretty important.
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