Weekly Market Analysis - March 9, 2021

Huzefa Hamid

Conducting a weekly market analysis is an important step to executing successful trades.

 

Here are the key takeaways from this weekly market analysis webinar:

  1. This week’s economic calendar has a heavy stream of US centric economic announcements, from CPI data, crude oil inventories and retail sales. These will affect the majors and the Dollar Index. Mixed in there are announcements that will affect the EUR, CAD, NZD, and GBP.

  2. A useful economic calendar resource for Forex traders is available at ForexTime.com > Market Analysis > Economic calendar.

  3. The US Dollar Index recently made a higher-low and broke through a previous resistance, suggesting that the downtrend that began in March 2020 has ended. The pause of the downtrend was in the same area as a long-term support level established in early 2018.

  4. EUR/USD has begun a downtrend after reaching a resistance area around 1.2350, which was established in late 2017 / early 2018.

  5. GBP/USD made a strong weekly bearish candle 2 weeks ago at 1.4241 after meeting a resistance area established in late 2017 / early 2018.

  6. NZD/USD made a strong weekly bearish candle 2 weeks ago at the 0.7465 level, after meeting a long-term resistance area established from September 2016 to February 2018.

  7. AUD/USD: Look for the uptrend that began in March 2020 and stalled as it met the resistance around 0.8135, which was established in September 2017 and January 2018.

  8. USDCHF: After the price met a long-term support level established in April 2014 at around 0.8750, the pair is now in a strong and fast uptrend. If going long, watch out for sharp pullbacks.

When conducting any market analysis, it's a great idea to begin with looking at the economic calendar for the week to gauge that market and where it might be headed.

If you're unfamiliar with an economic calendar, it looks something like this:

Economic calendar

Economic calendar

Economic CalendarEconomic CalendarEconomic Calendar

These are all medium- to high-impact news items expected this week and next, which will affect the major pairs.

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Before we look at actual price charts for the major pairs, I think it's worth explaining a bit about timeframes. I define “higher timeframes” as the weekly, daily and four-hour charts, and I define “lower timeframes” as the hourly, 15-minute and 5-minute charts. I use the higher timeframes to conduct my market analyses, and then I use the lower timeframes for the execution of the actual trade.

With that, let's begin with looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart, which can give you a good frame of reference for the major pairs, such as whether to be bullish or bearish various pairs:

DXY Daily Chart

The US dollar hit a peak back in February 2020 and then fell into a downtrend, which eventually broke through previous resistance and came back to test it before breaking through a lower support level. At the right of the chart, you can see how the price tested that level as resistance. I actually thought it would resume its downtrend, but now it's broken through that resistance. I think this is a pullback happening, and the price will come down to test this resistance as support. I'm expecting the DXY – and therefore the US dollar – to turn bullish.

Now let's move to the major pairs, beginning with the weekly chart for the EUR/USD:

EUR/USD weekly chart

The EUR/USD has come back up to a level it had tested as resistance in 2017, just before it began the downtrend you see in the chart. It has reversed pretty strongly at that level with some very bearish candles, so I'm bearish the EUR/USD.

Let's also look at the EUR/USD's daily chart to confirm the outlook:

EUR/USD daily chart

Here you see that the price broke through the marked resistance level at 1.1961 and came back down to test it as support. However, instead of moving back up, as I had expected, it has continued moving down. I believe it will test the support as resistance, so I confirm that I'm bearish this pair.

However, I recognize that testing the support as resistance would be a pretty deep pullback, as evident on the hourly chart:

EUR/USD hourly chart

The price has about 60 pips to go until it hits that level, which would be the optimal point to get in the trade. It's likely that the price may not reach that high before it goes back down.

The GBP/USD is similar to the EUR/USD, which you can see on the weekly chart:

GBP/USD Weekly chart

The price stalled before it reached the 50% Fibonacci level, which it then decisively rejected with a long candlestick.

In fact, looking at the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD seems to be in a new downtrend, shown here by consecutively lower highs which I've marked with grey rectangles:

GBP/USD hourly chart

Given all this, I'm bearish the GBP/USD.

I'm also bearish the AUD/USD, looking at the hourly chart:

AUD/USD hourly chart

It's broken through the red support level, but I really want to see it break through the support level I've marked by the grey rectangle, which is around 150 pips away. At this point, I would move to the 15-minute chart to actually execute the trade.

The NZD/USD is very similar to the AUD/USD, but I think it offers a clearer picture on the daily chart:

NZD/USD daily chart

The price was trending up and then squeezed into a triangle before breaking out to the upside. Then, it swiftly came down with two very bearish rejection candles, covering around 240 pips. I'm waiting for it to break through the red support level, but I'm already bearish the AUD/USD. If you're confident in your bearish outlook for this pair, you can consider placing a short position if the price hits the 61.8% Fibonacci level at the top of the range.

Let's look at the chart for the USD/CHF:

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF is erratic in the best of times. It formed the grey support area in 2013/2014, which it re-tested more recently, at which point the bulls really stepped in and brought the price back up in the last couple of weeks.

The daily chart for the USD/CHF gives us a closer look as to where the pair is headed:

USD/CHF daily chart

The price has clearly broken through the resistance, but it remains to be seen whether it will come back down or test the level as support. It looks like a strong reversal candle, which often means we can expect a pullback and then resume the trend.

I'm bearish the USD/CHF right now based on the daily chart, but if you're an intraday trader you might be bullish, based on the hourly chart:

USD/CHF hourly chart

Let's look at the weekly chart for the USD/CAD:

USD/CAD weekly chart

This pair has been on a downtrend and it's approaching the range marked by the grey rectangle, which it may use as a reversal.

But the hourly chart shows that it's a bit messy right now, and hard to find a clean entry point to get in a trade:

USD/CAD

Remember, you want to enter clean trades. So if a chart isn't very clear to you, stay away from it until you find a better chart, timeframe or even trade altogether.

Lastly, always mind your risk. Set stop losses with good ratios so you can trade safely.

Huzefa Hamid

I’m a trader and manage my own capital. I trade the major Forex pairs, some Futures contracts, and I rely entirely on Technical Analysis to place my trades. Today, I am also a Senior Analyst for DailyForex.com. I began trading the markets in the early 1990s, at the age of sixteen. I had a few hundred British pounds saved up (I grew up in England), with which I was able to open a small account with some help from my Dad. I started my trading journey by buying UK equities that I had read about in the business sections of newspapers. The 1990s were a bull market, so naturally, I made money. I was fortunate enough in my early twenties to have a friend that recommended a Technical Analysis course run by a British trader who emphasized raw chart analysis without indicators. Having this first-principles approach to charts influences how I trade to this day.

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