The major index used as a standard measurement of the health and value of the U.S. stock market is the S&P 500 Index, consisting of the 500 largest publicly quoted company by market capitalization. Last September this index made its all-time high to date of 2940.91. Yesterday, its value reached the highest level seen since October, at 2906.16. It has sold off a little since then. This area at and close to 2940.91 is likely to be a pivotal point, which will either see the price fail to rise and begin a bearish retracement or trend change, or a break to fresh all-time highs and still higher prices beyond that. For this reason, the U.S. stock market is worth keeping watch over. If the price does get above 2940.91 and break to new all-time highs, there will be a statistical probability of higher prices the next day too.
I’ve been away from my office for a week and since then markets are more interesting as we are beginning to see some long-term breakouts. We have seen NZD/USD reach multi-month lows, while USD/JPY flirts with similar highs. The precious metal Gold has also just made a calendar year low.
The major news over the past week is the agreement that was reached on a second Brexit extension, this time to 31st October 2019. The U.K. may leave before that date if its Parliament can pass the withdrawal agreement offered by the E.U. but the U.K. is now obliged to either hold elections for the European Parliament in late May, along with all the other member states, or to leave with no deal on 1st June. Opinion polls in the U.K. show Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party, which was only formed one week ago, in the lead on 27%, ahead of both the two major national parties, the Conservatives and Labour. If that were replicated in the real election, Britain would be sending a large cohort of fiercely anti-EU MEPs to the European Parliament, but the other members were happy to go along with this as the price of avoiding a no deal outcome.