Tuesday Roundup

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Price chartsLast Sunday I wrote about how the Turkish Lira, represented by the TRY/USD currency pair, had made a new long-term high on strong volume, suggesting that traders looking to be long of this pair pay attention to the resistance level I had identified at 5.8128. This was timely, as the price continued to retreat strongly from that level as the week got underway. It may now have found some support at 5.5000, but it is too early to be confident about that.

The Brexit saga continues without any resolution in sight yet. Although under U.K. law the U.K. is still set to leave the European Union at 11pm local time this Friday, Parliament is expected to easily pass tomorrow an instrument extending this date to 22nd May (if a deal is agreed) or 12th April (if no deal is agreed). Yesterday Parliament voted to wrest control of the legislative program from the government and will hold a series of “indicative votes” tomorrow, none of which are binding on the Government. The Government in turn still hopes to put another vote on the deal before Parliament on Thursday but has stated that they will not do so unless they think they have the votes to win. The takeaway here is that the forces which have been working to steal the result of the people’s vote which was held in 2016 – the referendum which mandated a departure from the European Union – are in the ascendancy, and are looking likely to succeed in either revoking article 50 or securing a very long delay to the departure date which, I think, will effectively take Brexit off the table.

Marks generally have been quiet, although WTI Crude Oil came within a whisker of making a new 4-month high price, and the New Zealand Dollar is looking like it could break to a new 3-month high. Risk sentiment has improved from last week, with stock markets and riskier assets rising quite firmly again.

Adam is a Forex trader who has worked within financial markets for over 12 years, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch. He is certified in Fund Management and Investment Management by the U.K. Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment.