Messy Market Situation
It’s “turnaround Tuesday”, the day of the week when markets traditionally find direction, but overall there is little to grasp in terms of finding any firm direction to exploit. Yesterday EUR/USD looked interesting on the long side and a rise may still play out there as the nearby support at 1.1416 still holds, but it does not look as if it going to happen quickly. Everywhere else, it is a mixed picture.
This is probably mostly caused by the fact that there is almost no news scheduled today and there was precious little yesterday either. Even more importantly, there is some important news ahead, the FOMC Meeting Minutes which are due tomorrow (Wednesday). The market is forming a consensus that the FOMC are not going to hike rates again any time soon, and if there is anything in the minutes which would call that assumption into question, we could expect a move in favor of the U.S. Dollar to happen. We are seeing movement in favor of the U.S. Dollar today, but it is slight and uneven.
Another item ahead is a speech from the Chair of the Federal Reserve on Thursday, which is a minor speech, but it is still possible that he might say something which moves the market. There will probably be a bigger impact on Friday from the scheduled release of U.S. inflation data. If there is unexpected inflation, that could put the question of a further rate hike back on the table.
The most solid thing we have seen in the markets over the past few days is the recovery in stocks and Crude Oil, which has been caused by more optimism regarding a potential resolution of the U.S. / China “trade war”. However, it is too early to call bottoms in stocks or Crude Oil yet. It might be correct, but it’s a big gamble, statistically.