Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

Amazon has gapped lower to kick off the trading session here on Wednesday to reach toward the $215 support level, only to turn around and rally significantly. The market looks as if the $223 level could be a bit of a barrier to overcome, but I think at this point in time, when you look at Amazon, it's very difficult not to see some type of admittedly messy, but some type of consolidation range, perhaps between $215 and $237. As we have bounced from this area, I think it's a very good sign that we may continue doing so. Keep in mind that volume in Amazon is maybe a little higher than it's been. So hopefully this is a little bit of accumulation for those of you who are bullish. And we have the 200 day EMA sitting just below that $215 level that of course will come into factor as well, as it is a long-term trend indicator that a lot of other traders will be paying attention to.

The US dollar has been all over the place during the course of the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, this is a market that is fighting a lot of sideways action, with the 0.80 level above offering resistance, but also the 0.79 level underneath the current action offering significant support. I start to question whether or not we are trying to find some type of bottom here, which obviously is a very noisy time of a market.

Silver rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday and should reach the $48 level before pulling back. At this point, the market is likely to continue to look at the $48 level as crucial, and therefore if we were to break above that level it would obviously be very bullish. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to look at the $50 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure. However, it’s not necessarily going to be easy to get there, and because of the fact that we now have the US government shutting down and not releasing the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement on Friday, we will be missing some information to make decisions on.

The NASDAQ 100 recovered quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, as we had pulled back just a bit after the ADP Non-Farm Payroll announcement, only to turn around and see quite a bit of buying pressure despite the fact that the United States government is likely to close down, and people are really sure what that means at times. We’ve been through this before, but ultimately it ends up being a big nothing, and I think that might be the case going forward. Furthermore, we also have the Non-Farm Payroll more likely than not being put off for a while as the United States government closing down will not allow the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release that announcement in a timely fashion on Friday.

The Light Sweet Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but then gave back the gains to start falling rather drastically. We have slammed into the $62 level, an area that has been support for quite a while, extending all the way down to the $60 level. This is a huge “zone of support” that continues to support the market, but we also have to ask questions about whether or not the demand for crude oil will start to pick up, or if the supply will just simply overwhelm it?

Bitcoin rallied on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise in the financial markets. The Bitcoin market has been of interest as of late, as we have seen 3 of the 4 last candles show green, and a large range is on top of that. With that being said, we are testing a major resistance barrier that is worth noting near the $117,000 level. The $117,000 level is an area that’s been important multiple times, but it looks like we are slamming into that and it’s also worth noting that even though the fact that we broke above there at one point during the session, and then turned around to show signs of weakness, suggests to me that we are in fact trying to break out, but seeing plenty of hesitancy.

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday to reach towards the 149 yen level but then pulled back significantly to break below the 200 day EMA at least for part of the session. The 50 day EMA also offer support. So now that we have, it has shown itself to be a little bit more resilient. I think you've got a situation where traders just aren't willing to go too deep into the market as the non-farm payroll uh comes out on Friday. That being said, I think you still have to favor the upside due to the swap differential. The interest rate differential still favors the US dollar regardless, and if we can break above the 149 yen level, I think we have a real shot at going to the 150 yen level, possibly even 151 yen. Anything about that then becomes buy and hold. I have been buying dips along the way for several months now. And I think that is going to be how I continue to play this market. Just simply collecting swaps to get paid, to hang on to the trade and then collecting my gains as they occur.

Nvidia has rallied during the trading session here on Tuesday to break above the crucial $184 level as the breakout that has been somewhat obvious now has finally come to fruition. Volume has picked up just a bit during the trading session as well, so that obviously helps. And as you can see, NVIDIA has driven nearly 50 % of the S &P 500's gains since April. The market is reacting also to CoreWeave signing a $6.3 billion deal with NVIDIA, which includes an agreement for NVIDIA to purchase unsold cloud space. Remember, NVIDIA does through AI demand a lot of data centers, et cetera, to be put into production. So, at this point, it looks like Nvidia is going to be able to have more space to perhaps facilitate the running of AI. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out as they will almost certainly, before it's all said and done, probably get into the AI game directly.

Gold has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Tuesday as it looks like we are running out of momentum at the moment, but it's worth noting that we fell pretty significantly and then turned around. So maybe that was enough to get people interested in buying gold. I don't know. I do recognize that the $3,800 level underneath should continue to be support. And even if we break down below there, the $3,700 level is a floor followed by the $3,600 level with the 50 day EMA sitting right there as well. So, in other words, even if we do pull back and quite frankly, I hope we do, it's time to start buying gold on the cheap. That is my goal to find gold cheaper if I can do so.

The euro has rallied against the US dollar But it's continuing to struggle with hanging on the gains at this point it's very interesting to see how things have played out because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and That was the top of the euro against the US dollar at least so far with that being the case it does look like we are trying to change the structure of this market, but I also recognize that we've got a lot of noise ahead of us in the form of the non-farm payroll announcement on Friday. So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. The JOLTS Jobs Openings number came out during the Wednesday session, which was rather poor. And while that originally sent the U S dollar lower, the reality is that if the United States starts to slow down, it will have a negative influence on Europe and other places like that. Let us not forget that the Federal Reserve cutting rates is a known thing. There's nothing surprising about it. And even if they do cut rates, you have to wonder if the economic slowdown is starting to become a bigger problem. If it is, then you've got a real situation where the U.S. dollar ends up being eventually preferred over most other currencies as U.S. Treasuries will continue to attract inflows.

High valuations, contracting profit margins, and shareholder value destruction are hidden by the current rally. Will bearish pressures force a sell-off?

The German index has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as the markets continue to hover around the 50 day EMA. The 24,000 euro level just above is a bit of a large round psychologically significant figure and a barrier. So, with that being the case, I think if we can get above 24,000 euros, that lets the market go much higher, perhaps to the 24,500 euro uh level. That is the top of the overall range. And therefore, I think you need to pay close attention to whether or not we explode to the upside because if we do, that's where we're going. The market also is worth looking at through the prism of dips being opportunities to buy cheap contracts. When you look at the longer term move, the DAX has been rallying for quite some time.

The US dollar has seen a bit of drifting to the downside in the USD/MXN pair. The Mexican peso has be gaining against the US dollar for some time, as we have been in a downtrend. The interest rate differential favors Mexico, so this makes sense from trend standpoint. This trend has been fairly reliable over the last several months, with a brief sideways movement during the summer. This has quietly been one of the better “sell and hold” situations out there, as you could have collected significant swap being short.

Insider selling, excessive valuations, and negative earnings over the past five years are significant red flags. Is more downside ahead for Atlassian?

The US dollar initially rallied against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday but then gave back gains to show there is still a bit of hesitation at the moment, as there are a lot of questions about the Federal Reserve and what its plans are for interest rates going forward. Furthermore, there are some questions as to where things go with the US government and a potential shutdown looming.