Forex Daily Forecast, Analysis and Prediction

The GBP/USD exchange rate held steady on Thursday as the US dollar retreat continued. It jumped to a high of 1.3485, continuing a trend that started when it bottomed at 1.3325.

The EUR/USD exchange rate was unchanged on Thursday morning as market participants waited for more information on the ongoing government shutdown in the United States. It was trading at 1.1730, a few pips below the highest point this week.

Bitcoin price jumped to the highest level since August as investors predicted that more gains would happen in the so-called Uptober. It also happened as the government shutdown pushed more people to the coin.. The BTC/USD pair rose 117,550, up by almost 10% from the lowest level in September.

The AUD/USD exchange rate rose to the highest point since September 18 as the US government shutdown started and after the US published weak jobs numbers. It rose to 0.6620, up from last week’s low of 0.6520.

The US dollar initially did try to rally a bit during the earlier part of the session on Wednesday but then fell significantly as we could not hang above the 200 day EMA for very long. We fell pretty significantly, but we are starting to see the US dollar find some value hunting. I think at this point in time, it's likely that the US dollar will continue to see some interest.

Gold markets initially rallied a bit during the early hours here on Wednesday but then gave back quite a bit of the gains near the $3,900 level. Keep in mind that the gold market continues to see a lot of volatility and choppiness. And the fact that we gave up some of the gains tells me that we just don't really know what to do. With this being said, market participants obviously know the gold is very bullish, but it has to give back some of the gains sooner or later. I think there are a lot of concerns out there about the US government shutting down. I don't know why it happens from time to time, but the market always seems to react to it and it's possible. What we see here is money coming out of profits in places like the gold market and going into the treasury market. The 10-year note is definitely gaining steam during this session.

The Euro has initially rallied against the US dollar during the trading session here on Wednesday but then gave back a bit of the gains to turn around and show a massive shooting star by the time the Americans fully have the market in their hands. The 1.18 level continues to be a major barrier to overcome that we just really haven't seen happen yet. So, with that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that given enough time, we'll have to make a bigger decision. And to me, it looks like we are running out of momentum. If we fall from here, it's likely that we could go looking at the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA offer support, but breaking down below there, then opens up the possibility of an uptrend line coming into the picture for support. Beyond that, then we have the 1.16 level.

The British Pound has initially tried to rally during the trading session here on Wednesday to break above the 50-day EMA, but it looks like we are giving back quite a bit of those gains. It's interesting as we have seen a lot of noisy behavior and I think the fact that we have given back so many gains tells me that the British pound just isn't ready to take off against the dollar yet. With the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, since then we've seen the US dollar strengthen. Goes against everything you hear, I understand. But when you look at history, quite often, once the Fed starts cutting, especially if they do several different times over the course of a handful of months, that's pro-dollar. And that's because people run to treasuries. They need safety.

Amazon has gapped lower to kick off the trading session here on Wednesday to reach toward the $215 support level, only to turn around and rally significantly. The market looks as if the $223 level could be a bit of a barrier to overcome, but I think at this point in time, when you look at Amazon, it's very difficult not to see some type of admittedly messy, but some type of consolidation range, perhaps between $215 and $237. As we have bounced from this area, I think it's a very good sign that we may continue doing so. Keep in mind that volume in Amazon is maybe a little higher than it's been. So hopefully this is a little bit of accumulation for those of you who are bullish. And we have the 200 day EMA sitting just below that $215 level that of course will come into factor as well, as it is a long-term trend indicator that a lot of other traders will be paying attention to.

The US dollar has been all over the place during the course of the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. All things being equal, this is a market that is fighting a lot of sideways action, with the 0.80 level above offering resistance, but also the 0.79 level underneath the current action offering significant support. I start to question whether or not we are trying to find some type of bottom here, which obviously is a very noisy time of a market.

Silver rallied again during the trading session on Wednesday and should reach the $48 level before pulling back. At this point, the market is likely to continue to look at the $48 level as crucial, and therefore if we were to break above that level it would obviously be very bullish. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to look at the $50 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure. However, it’s not necessarily going to be easy to get there, and because of the fact that we now have the US government shutting down and not releasing the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement on Friday, we will be missing some information to make decisions on.

The NASDAQ 100 recovered quite nicely during the trading session on Wednesday, as we had pulled back just a bit after the ADP Non-Farm Payroll announcement, only to turn around and see quite a bit of buying pressure despite the fact that the United States government is likely to close down, and people are really sure what that means at times. We’ve been through this before, but ultimately it ends up being a big nothing, and I think that might be the case going forward. Furthermore, we also have the Non-Farm Payroll more likely than not being put off for a while as the United States government closing down will not allow the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release that announcement in a timely fashion on Friday.

The Light Sweet Crude Oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but then gave back the gains to start falling rather drastically. We have slammed into the $62 level, an area that has been support for quite a while, extending all the way down to the $60 level. This is a huge “zone of support” that continues to support the market, but we also have to ask questions about whether or not the demand for crude oil will start to pick up, or if the supply will just simply overwhelm it?

Bitcoin rallied on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise in the financial markets. The Bitcoin market has been of interest as of late, as we have seen 3 of the 4 last candles show green, and a large range is on top of that. With that being said, we are testing a major resistance barrier that is worth noting near the $117,000 level. The $117,000 level is an area that’s been important multiple times, but it looks like we are slamming into that and it’s also worth noting that even though the fact that we broke above there at one point during the session, and then turned around to show signs of weakness, suggests to me that we are in fact trying to break out, but seeing plenty of hesitancy.

The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday to reach towards the 149 yen level but then pulled back significantly to break below the 200 day EMA at least for part of the session. The 50 day EMA also offer support. So now that we have, it has shown itself to be a little bit more resilient. I think you've got a situation where traders just aren't willing to go too deep into the market as the non-farm payroll uh comes out on Friday. That being said, I think you still have to favor the upside due to the swap differential. The interest rate differential still favors the US dollar regardless, and if we can break above the 149 yen level, I think we have a real shot at going to the 150 yen level, possibly even 151 yen. Anything about that then becomes buy and hold. I have been buying dips along the way for several months now. And I think that is going to be how I continue to play this market. Just simply collecting swaps to get paid, to hang on to the trade and then collecting my gains as they occur.