Potential signal:
- A move below the crucial 18.50 level has me selling, looking for a move to at least 18, if not 17.
- I would have a stop at the 19 level. I am not interested in buying because of the swap.
The U.S. dollar has rallied slightly during the Thursday session, as we are looking at a pair that is heavily influenced by the U.S. side of the border. Employment numbers on Friday could lead the way.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar has initially pulled back just a touch during the trading session here on Thursday, as the MXN 18.50 level continues to offer support, with the 19 level above offering a significant resistance barrier.
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We are essentially in a holding pattern as we wait for the nonfarm payroll announcements to come out. With this, I think it is probably only a matter of time before we do make a bigger move, and I think Friday’s number might be the catalyst.
My suspicion is that the jobs report comes in a little hotter than anticipated
At this point in time, I look at the nonfarm payrolls as a big mover just waiting to happen. It is expected to be 65,000 jobs added. We will see how that plays out. My suspicion is that the jobs report comes in a little hotter than anticipated if the JOLTS numbers are to be believed.
If we were to break down from here, then you get a bit of a carry trade, perhaps down to the 18 level. A breakout to the upside opens up the door to 20. We could end up sideways. We will see if we hit the numbers about where they are expected. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
There is a lot of uncertainty out there, and of course, the Bank of Mexico recently has started to sound a little bit more dovish. So, we will have to keep an eye on that as well. But as things stand right now, this is neutral in a 1-peso area of consolidation, which technical analysis dictates that we should either gain or lose another peso once we break out.
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