The greenback fell against the peso on Friday, as the jobs report suggests that the US economy is still strong, allowing for further Mexican exports.
USD/MXN
The U.S. dollar has given up some gains against the Mexican peso during the early part of the Friday session as the jobs report in the United States came out a bit hotter than anticipated.
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With the addition of 165,000 jobs as opposed to the 65,000 expected, it makes sense that people are starting to bank on maybe a little bit more resilient economy in America. That means more Mexican exports. Mexico exports to the United States at the largest clip of anybody in the world, and therefore it is good for Mexico that the United States is doing well.
The interest rate differential favors the Mexican peso as well,so that makes sense. When you zoom out, you can see that the 19 peso level is an area that has been important previously a couple of times. The market looks very much like a situation that got a little overheated, and we are starting to see this market roll over as a result.
I think ultimately the carry trade may be back in vogue.
We'll just have to wait and see. This is one of the few places that I'm seeing the U.S. dollar weaken during the day, and this, to me, makes sense.
All things being equal, we could, upon breaking 18.45, drop down towards the 18 level. If we were to turn around and break above 19, then I think that means that we would see the U.S. dollar strengthening everywhere as risk appetite gets eviscerated. You would probably need to see some kind of corresponding move across the Forex world in a safety bid.
That's a different scenario than what we are seeing today with higher rates expected. But Mexico, as I said, is a little bit of a different scenario and story than most places.
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