The U.S. dollar continues to attract traders as the ‘real rates’ continue to pay those who are holding U/S/ debt. At this point, we also have the Swiss National Bank vowing to keep rates at 0%.
USD/CHF
The U.S. dollar has broken out significantly during the trading session here on Wednesday, breaking above the 0.83 level. This is an area that is a significant level of importance, as it was previously support as well as resistance. This is an area that continues to attract volume and momentum trading.
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The Federal Reserve is likely to remain fairly hawkish
Slicing through the way we have seen this happen during the day on Wednesday suggests that the interest rate situation continues to favor the carry trade going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to remain fairly hawkish, as the latest CPI numbers came out hotter than anticipated and, of course, the latest jobs number came out at almost triple expectations.
With that being said, and the reiteration by the Swiss National Bank over the last 24 hours to hang on to a zero-interest-rate policy and to monitor forex markets, this suggests that this could be one of the bigger carry trade candidates out there. Not only due to the differential, but the fact that the Swiss National Bank very well could work in your favor if, for some reason, we start to sell off drastically. This is very unlikely, though, and a ‘possible outcome’, not a ‘probable one.’
A break above the 0.84 level opens up a bigger move to the upside, and I currently hold this position to the long side and am willing to add to it as we go along. I think we end up going much higher. This is an investment more than anything else, although short-term traders can get involved as well at times.
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