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Gold Price Forecast: Election-Fueled Rally Faces a Reality Check

By Christopher Lewis Christopher L.
Senior Technical Analyst

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for tra...

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Gold continues to see a lot of noise in the market, as the elections in the United States have given control of Congress to the Democrats.

Gold

The gold market rallied pretty significantly during the early part of the trading session on Wednesday, mainly, I believe, in reaction to the election results in the United States, with the Democrats taking Congress. Traders are starting to think about potential moves in the war.

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The situation probably doesn’t change much to be honest

That being said, though, it is very unlikely that the situation changes much. At the end of the day, many in the Democratic Party support the conflict in the Middle East, so I think this is probably going to end up being a bit of a fade-the-rally type of situation.

Gold Forecast 05/11: Election Rally Faces Resistance (Video)

The $4,100 level is a significant swing high as of late, and if we could break above there, then it would be a very bullish sign indeed. The biggest problem I have with taking that trade, quite frankly, is going to be the fact that the nonfarm payroll announcement comes out on Friday.

Of course, we have not had too many official statements coming out of the Middle East. We do have the Qatari foreign ministers trying to do what they can to facilitate some type of peace agreement, but quite frankly, I just do not see this changing. This could end up being a nice shorting opportunity for those willing to get involved. This is a market that I am still negative on, but I am not willing to get aggressive without the information that Friday will bring. (Jobs report)

Real rates still pay you to hold paper. That is a big problem as well. But if we were to break above the $4,200 level, it is what it is, and you simply have to recognize that the market has changed. I think Friday will be crucial when trying to figure out what to do here.

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Senior Technical Analyst
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

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