Bearish view
Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3350.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3500.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3500.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3350.
The GBP/USD pair continued its recent rally this week as traders waited for several important events in the United States and the United Kingdom. It rose to a high of 1.3446, its highest point since September 16, and 2.25% above the lowest level in October.
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Bank of England Decision and US Jobs Data
The GBP/USD pair has held steady in the past few days as investors wait for several important events. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest JOLTS job openings report, with economists expecting the figure to come in at 7.110 million. Also, the US will publish the latest factory orders and durable goods order numbers.
The pair will also react to the upcoming ADP jobs report for October. Economists expect the data to show that the private sector created 68k jobs last month after adding 90k in the previous month. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the official numbers on Friday.
These numbers come a week after the Federal Reserve delivered its interest rate decision. A strong jobs report will raise the possibility that the bank will hike interest rates in the December meeting. Odds of the bank hiking rates have jumped to almost 90% on Polymarket and Kalshi.
The GBP/USD pair also reacted to the falling crude oil prices. Brent and the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $104 and $96, respectively. Oil prices fell as odds of a potential deal between the US and Iran rose. However, there is still a possibility that the two sides will go back to fight after the midterm elections.
The other key catalyst for the pair will be the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to hike interest rates by 0.25% in its bid to lower inflation.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair held steady in the past few days. It was trading at a crucial resistance level of 1.3400, a few points below the crucial resistance level of 1.3446.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped to 20, a sign that the upward trend is losing momentum. The pair has remained slightly above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Therefore, the pair will likely pull back in the coming days, potentially to the key support of 1.3356, the 50-day moving average.
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