The crypto sector is sinking, and continues to look bearish, and Bitcoin looks likely to drop further with it. Now that the price seems to have become well-established below $80,000 the path is open to a further drop. Bitcoin tends to behave very technically and to respect obvious technical analysis features, so let’s see what the chart is saying.
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The daily chart shows that the price – just as can be seen in Gold has broken below a very obvious supportive round number. In Bitcoin's case, that number is $80,000. The price has remained well below it since Thursday, so it begins to look like a bearish breakdown which might hold.
On the other hand, the price action has printed a double bottom at $76,500 and has been mostly rising gently since then, so the short-term price action is weakly bullish. However, the recent test a few hours ago of the resistance level at $78,677 has clearly failed, strengthening the bearish picture.
The price is currently much closer to resistance than support, so it looks quite probably that it will be tested again before the support is.
Bitcoin Price Chart – Another Test of $78,677 Coming?
My Take on BTC/USD
The pivotal point today is likely to be $78,677. If this is tested again and we see another firm failure there, I see a short trade as an opportunity at that point, especially as the price has plenty of room to fall from there until it meets the next key support level. However, be ware of the historic bullish inflection at $76,500 which might hold again.
I am not interested in a long trade in Bitcoin today.
Review, Support & Resistance Levels
My previous BTC/USD signal on 29th October was not triggered.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $75,014 or $73,577.
Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $78,677, $80,321, or $82,073.
Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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