Bullish view
Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1230.
Add a stop-loss at 1.100.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.100.
Add a stop-loss at 1.1230.
The EUR/USD pair wavered after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The pair also consolidated as traders awaited the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) decision and key US macro data, including inflation and GDP figures. It was trading at 1.1152, a few points above this month’s low of 1.1111.
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US Macro Data and ECB Decision
The EUR/USD pair wavered after the Federal Reserve delivered its October interest rate decision. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.75% and 4%, with two officials voting to hike rates.
In his statement, Governor Kevin Warsh maintained that US inflation was too high. As a result, market participants, including Goldman Sachs analysts, predict that the bank will now hike interest rates in the last meeting of the year. Polymarket odds show that most traders expect the bank to hike in December.
The EUR/USD pair will now react to more macro data from the United States. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) remained above 2% in September. The US will also publish the latest GDP and initial jobless claims data.
The most important catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 2.65% and the deposit facility rate at 2.50%. Like the Fed, analysts believe that the bank has room to hike rates later this year.
The bank’s main challenge is that some key European countries are facing challenges, with bond yields in key countries like Spain and France soaring to the highest level in years.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has continued falling this month. It was trading at 1.1160, much lower than the 50-day moving average. It has also stayed at the extreme oversold level of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
On the positive side, the pair has formed a double-bottom pattern whose neckline is at the Ultimate Support of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will bounce back in the near term. If this happens, it will likely rebound to the ultimate support of 1.1230.
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