The New Zealand dollar continues to see a lot of selling pressure, as a soft RBNZ and a hawkish Fed collide here. Interest rate expectations have a lot of sway in this pair at the moment.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar has fallen pretty significantly during trading here on Monday as traders have seen the 0.58 support level finally get broken. At this point, we are now breaking below the 0.5760 support level and starting to eye the possibility of a move to the 0.57 level. This is an area that has been important a few times in the past as well.
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Interest rates in America continue to climb. In fact, we just crossed over 5% in the 10-year yield, and this, of course, is against the backdrop of a fairly dovish central bank in New Zealand, so it all ties together quite nicely. The interest rate decision on Wednesday is expected to be a 25-basis-point rate hike coming out of the United States, but the real question is not so much about that; it's about the conference and the statement afterwards. How hawkish or dovish does the Federal Reserve sound?
Overall, I think we do have further to go
Ultimately, I think this is a little bit of an outlier in the U.S. dollar in general, mainly due to the fact that the New Zealand central bank is so dovish while so many others are so hawkish. This is a situation that makes the Kiwi dollar a bit different than so many others out there.
Overall, I think we do have further to go, and I look at short-term rallies as potential selling opportunities, at least until we break above the 0.5825 level. This is a strong drop. It generally would make people think that there should be some follow-through, so short-term rallies, for me, are interesting entry points.
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