The interest rate differential continues to be a major development in this pair, as with all the other JPY-denominated markets.
EUR/JPY
The euro has been very noisy against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday as traders continue to try to determine where the interest rate differential is going. The Bank of Japan has recently intervened a few times to save its own currency, but recently we have seen a lot of questions asked about the efficacy of Japanese tightening, as there were a couple of dissenters at the latest interest-rate decision when they hiked the overnight rate.
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That being said, this is a market that continues to see a lot of interest-rate differential play out as part of the carry trade. However, when it comes to the euro, it is a little bit different in the sense that the Europeans have to worry about energy this winter. If that does, in fact, come to fruition, it will be interesting to see if this pair diverges from the other yen-denominated markets, or if we just focus on the interest-rate differential after all. The ECB may have to raise rates due to energy inflation.
The 170 yen level underneath has offered significant support
The 170 yen level underneath has offered significant support, and it now looks as if the 182 yen level above could be a bit of a target, with the 50-day EMA getting ready to break down below the 200-day EMA. This could be a “death cross”, a very bearish sign for the trend.
Ultimately, this is a very choppy and noisy market. The market remains more of a buy-on-the-dip situation, but if we were to break down below the 178 yen level, then you have a situation where the Japanese yen probably not only strengthens from here, but against multiple other currencies.
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