Potential signal
I am buying here, with a stop loss at the 109.90 level, with a target of 113.
The Canadian dollar fell hard against the Japanese yen as Finance Minister Katayama has stated that intervention is still possible.
During the trading session on Friday, we've seen some comments coming out of the Japanese finance minister, Katayama, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may intervene again if things get out of control. At the same time, we've seen the oil markets drift a little bit lower.
This has been a bit of a one-two punch against the Canadian dollar versus Japanese yen currency pair, if you will. That being said, I still look at this as a market that, given enough time, will return to the idea of the carry trade, especially if oil continues to jump.
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If we break down below the 110 yen level
Then I think there's a real shot that we go looking to the 106 yen level pretty quickly. That would be a massive rounding top that has been completed. The 50-day EMA is now below the 200-day EMA, and that, of course, is negative.
Now, keep in mind that the idea of the Japanese intervening is possible, but the Canadian dollar itself has its own issues. The trade war with the United States certainly does no favors for it. So this is clearly a market I'm waiting to see whether or not oil spikes again. If it does, then I become bullish.
On the other hand, if it doesn't and I still want to go against the Japanese yen, I'll probably do it in another currency like the U.S. dollar, maybe the Australian dollar. Remember, currency trading is a relative-strength game, and the Canadian dollar will get a boost from oil spiking. But other than that, this is a market that I'm watching.
If we see the Japanese yen strengthen radically, then I might short this pair below ¥110. But right now, this is on my radar for any violent moves upward in the oil market.
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