H1 Bitcoin Recovery Hinges on Seller Friction at $77K
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Bitcoin Price Tests $77K as Bullish Reversal Signals Build
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Bitcoin tests $77,000 as on-chain momentum turns positive. A move above $80,000 could confirm a recovery, while failure risks a pullback toward $74,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) sellers returned on the first day of September, pulling BTC price as low as $76,300 on Tuesday.
Analysts said that Bitcoin showed signs of a bear market reversal, but they were watching key resistance levels that the pioneer cryptocurrency must break to confirm a trend change.
Bitcoin Holder Profits Increase
Bitcoin’s recent price recovery brought it 39% from its $126,000 all-time high, reached in October 2025.
This rally has pushed its Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the difference between total profits and losses currently held by investors, above 0.30, placing it in the “optimism zone,” according to data from CryptoQuant.
Coupled with the crypto fear and greed index in the “greed zone” at 63, which means investor sentiment is moderately bullish and buyers are returning to the market.
A NUPL recovery above 0.33 into the Optimism zone has historically aligned with strengthening price momentum.”
“Bitcoin NUPL sits near 0.33 in the Optimism zone (1 Sep 2026 data). It has not printed the negative capitulation readings seen at the 2018 and 2022 bottoms,” analysts at BitcoinWorld Media said in an X post on Tuesday, adding:
“This cycle’s drawdown from the $126K Oct 2025 high is also shallower so far. Either the market is maturing and a deep flush is no longer required, or that washout is still ahead.”
Bitcoin net unrealized profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuant
This structurally resembles conditions seen in previous bear markets, where the NUPL continued rising above 0.30 as Bitcoin found the legs for a renewed bull run.
However, the chart above shows that Bitcoin retraced by as much as 23% in mid-2023 before continuing with the bull run.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Gaah found that Bitcoin’s Cycle Momentum indicator has turned positive after an eight-month long bear market.
“This signal indicates a high probability that BTC is on track to break out of the downtrend and reverse the bear market,” Gaah said in a Tuesday Quicktake analysis, adding:
“For this reversal signal to be confirmed, we want to see the indicator reach a level between 20-30 in the coming weeks, continuing the upward trend in price recovery.”
Bitcoin cycle momentum. Source: CryptoQuant
PlanB also highlighted several other indicators supporting Bitcoin’s upside, including August’s strong close above $78,500, the highest in four months.
The BTC/USD pair is trading above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $65,000, the 5-month short-term holder (STH) realized price at $72,000, increasing supply in profit and the monthly relative strength index (RSI) above 50.
“The bottom is behind us. I expect higher prices from here,” PlanB added.
Source: PlanB/X
H2 Cycle Momentum Indicators Suggest Reversal
The Cycle Momentum indicator, derived from on-chain data, has turned positive for the first time since the September 2022 crash—a reversal that historically precedes either major bull runs or substantial retests of support zones. This shift marks a structural inflection point where the market's internal dynamics have shifted from liquidation-driven sell pressure to accumulation-focused positioning. The 50-week EMA at $77,000 now functions as the critical fulcrum: a sustained close above it would validate institutional re-entry, while a failure to hold would suggest the positive momentum signal masks a false bottom. This binary outcome creates the current market tension, where each four-hour candle either builds conviction or invalidates the reversal thesis.
H2 Technical Structure and Key Resistance Zones
Since recovering to multi-month highs above $82,000, the BTC/USD pair remains stuck in a wide range where $66,000 is acting as support and $80,000 as resistance, with few unsustained deviations on either side.
Bitcoin’s bullishness now hinges on rising above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,000.
Above that, the next zone of resistance sits between $80,000, where the 50-week SMA sits and $82,000. Reclaiming this as support would open the path for an 18% rise from the current price to $90,000.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
On the downside, key levels to watch include the local low at $75,500 and the psychological level at $70,000.
Below that, another area of support sits between $69,500 and $66,000, where all the daily moving averages sit, as shown in the chart above.
The recovery is not yet confirmed for Bitcoin, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a recent post on X.
An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin price retracing from the resistance at $77,700 and “therefore expecting to see a sweep of the recent low at $76,400 and a test at the zone at $76,200,” van de Poppe said, adding:
“If that doesn't hold, we'll see a tremendous opportunity at $74,000 as a potential test and entry zone.”
BTC/USD 1 hour chart. Source: Michael van de Poppe/X
CoinGlass’s Bitcoin heatmap below shows high leverage liquidity levels above the price at $78,300 and below the price at $76,200.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
H2 What Would Break the Reversal Setup
The bull reversal thesis depends on Bitcoin's ability to hold the 50-week EMA at $77,000 as support while building higher lows on the daily timeframe. Should price action fall below the 200-day SMA at $72,000 on a decisive daily close (4-hour confirmation), the institutional re-entry narrative would be nullified, and the market would revert to a lower-low structure indicative of deeper capitulation. Additionally, if the $80,000 resistance level is approached but rejected twice without a breakout candle, it would suggest the liquidation short squeeze anticipated by technical analysts is premature, signaling instead that leverage remains top-heavy and vulnerable to de-risking. A failure to reclaim $80,000 as support within the next two weekly candles would indicate the cycle momentum inflection is false, pushing invalidation risk back to $76,200, then $74,000.
Bitcoin's momentum reversal consolidates around the $77,000 nexus, where institutional re-entry signals collide with retail liquidation clustering. The structural setup—positive NUPL and Cycle Momentum paired with leveraged positioning both above and below current price—suggests a two-week inflection period where conviction either breaks above $80,000 or reverses to test $74,000 support. Watch the next 48 hours for a sustained close above $77,700; failure to hold that zone would validate the deeper washout thesis and expose how deeply the bull narrative has been priced.
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