Bullish view
Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7250.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7055.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.7055.
Add a stop-loss at 0.7250.
The AUD/USD pair has climbed steadily over the past three months, rising from a low of 0.6866 to the current 0.7166. This uptrend faces a key test in the coming days as both the US and Australia release major macroeconomic data, while the ongoing US-Iran crisis adds further uncertainty to the outlook.
Top Regulated Brokers
Australia and US Macro Data Ahead
The AUD/USD pair will be in the spotlight as the US publishes important data. For example, S&P Global and ISM will publish the latest manufacturing and services PMI numbers. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the S&P Global report to show that the manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 in August, while the ISM one moved to 55.2. A PMI reading of 5o and above is a sign that the economy is growing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest JOLTS jobs openings report, which is expected to show that the economy had 7.33 million vacancies in July, down from the previous month’s 7.35 million. These numbers come a day before ADP releases the private jobs numbers for August. The BLS will then release the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with economists expecting it to show that it added over 84k jobs.
These numbers come a week after Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve Chair, delivered his first statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In a statement, he maintained that inflation was still significantly high and signaled that the bank will hike rates.
The AUD/USD pair will also react to the upcoming Australian macro data. Economists expect tomorrow’s GDP numbers to show that the economy expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter. These numbers will guide the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) when making its interest rate decision.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has rebounded in the past three months. In this rally, it has formed an ascending channel, which connects the highest and lowest swings since June 29 this year.
The pair has held steady above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the Supertrend indicator. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators have continued rising. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising, with the next key target to watch being at the year-to-date high of 0.7278.
Ready to trade our free trading signals? We’ve made a list of the top forex brokers in Australia for you to check out.