The Australian dollar continues to grind back-and-forth against the Swiss franc, as we are seeing the carry trade live on.
AUD/CHF
The Australian dollar has fallen a bit against the Swiss franc during early trading on Monday, as traders come back to a very messy and unsure world.
Ultimately, this is a market that's doing what it can to consolidate and make its next big decision. It's worth noting that the interest rate differential still widely favors the Australian dollar over the Swiss franc. With the Swiss National Bank having a zero-interest-rate policy and seemingly nowhere near getting away from it, it does make a certain amount of sense that traders will look at this as a market that should, at least in theory, all things being equal, remain bullish.
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There are so many questions out there about risk appetite
In this environment, I think it makes a certain amount of sense to remain somewhat optimistic, but also recognize that the choppiness is probably the way the market's going to be for the foreseeable future, as there are so many questions out there about risk appetite.
Granted, you do get paid to hang on to this trade and collect swap at the end of every session, so there is a certain argument to be made for that possibility of just holding on to it with a reasonable size and riding it higher. That's what I've been doing for some time, and at this point, there's nothing on the chart that suggests the trend is going to change.
I do believe that the 0.58 level could be an area of support, with the 50-day EMA sitting underneath there also offering that same potential support. To the upside, the 0.59 level is likely to be a little bit of resistance just due to psychology, but I think the juicy target is closer to 0.60.
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