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WTI Crude Oil Forecast: Prices Test $86 as Hormuz Risks Drive Volatility

By Robert Petrucci
Market and Geopolitical Analyst

Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market...

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Traders big and small are likely concluding in WTI Crude Oil that current conditions between Iran and the U.S are faced with a difficult reality. It is becoming clear the Middle East situation lacks a genuine avenue for a quick resolution and the price of WTI Crude Oil continues to deliver a known value realm that remains relatively high, but somehow within what appears to be a routine stance. Speculators are being confronted with a complex parade of rumors regarding the Iranian conflict that is causing intraday volatility in WTI Crude Oil.

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WTI Crude Oil Volatility Rises on Conflicting Hormuz Reports

Opportunities based on sudden volatility remain large in WTI Crude Oil. Unfortunately for retail traders with less information than large players in the commodity, the use of news and the way sentiment is manufactured can prove dangerous. Because by the time a small trader receives news regarding the Middle East situation regarding the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely larger players with better intel have seen the reports and already acted on the developments. Conflicting news remains a fixture from the Middle East and speculators need to look at the price of WTI Crude Oil and try to define where near-term momentum will traverse. The past few days of trading in the energy sector have delivered a steady diet of contradictory reporting from various sources.

WTI Holds Near $85.50 as Traders Watch the $86 Resistance Level

At this moment the price of WTI Crude Oil is above the $85.000 mark and situated near $85.470. The current value of WTI Crude Oil is at its week’s high, but within the center of mid-term charts and is actually around ratios seen on the 9th of March. This may be important from a sentiment perspective because WTI Crude Oil while maintaining a higher stance certainly is within what may be perceived as a neutral and cautious price cycle taking into consideration the last half year.

The Iran and U.S conflict appears to have entered an economic battle. Reports that oil tankers are operating in the Hormuz Strait and bypassing Iranian threats are intriguing, but this must be weighed against reports of tactically difficult navigation circumstances that continue to slow transport. WTI Crude Oil prices seem to suggest a cautious approach is being taken by large players who are reacting to constant shipping intel and factoring it into their trading positions. The $86.00 mark has been touched importantly yesterday and early today in WTI Crude Oil.

Why Supply Concerns Are Keeping WTI Crude Oil Supported

The higher values challenged yesterday and early today continue to signal that large player remain able to create upwards surges in WTI Crude Oil, but the pullbacks from the $86.000 mark also show supply from sources outside of the Middle East are creating a counterweight. The value of WTI Crude Oil which is drilled in the United States is being pushed higher because of demand concerns, if the situation in the Middle East shows signs of improvement the demand for U.S product will lessen.

However, the current circumstances because of the Iranian situation cannot be called optimistic. Just because the U.S White House wants to portray an optimistic dynamic doesn’t mean the situation is calm. It is clear to many traders that a realistic approach to the WTI Crude Oil market includes cautious expectations.

WTI Crude Oil Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil Traders Face Upside Risk From Negative Headlines

Traders need to keep in mind that the comfortable price seen in WTI Crude Oil doesn’t represent what will happen today or tomorrow. While everyone knows price velocity can break out at any moment, it is good to realize that a sudden announcement from a ‘trusted’ news source can cause a reactive change in direction within the WTI Crude Oil market. While current conditions seem to indicate there will not be a sudden dose of optimism delivered into the marketplace, day traders need to stay alert. However, the biggest threat for the moment and potential source of news somehow feels as if negative sentiment is the bigger danger – meaning WTI Crude Oil may continue to move higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Levels: Support, Resistance, and Targets

WTI Crude Oil is getting the attention of not only its trading participants, but by global investors too. Concerns about lingering higher prices without a window for lower prices to fully come back into vogue are creating inflation worries. However, the U.S is having an impact on better Hormuz Strait traffic and this seems to be creating the current price realm that is creating a rather known stance which traders can seek their wagers.

WTI Crude Oil Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 85.650

Current Support: 85.100

High Target: 86.400

Low Target: 83.400

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Market and Geopolitical Analyst
Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market conditions into structured scenarios for traders and investors.

As seen on: Investing.com, TalkMarkets, Angry MetaTraders

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