Gold
The gold market has been all over the place during the week as interest rates continue to climb. Despite the fact that we do have higher interest rates in the United States, gold has at least remained in the same consolidation area that we had been in for a while, with the $4,000 level offering a bit of a floor and the $4,200 level offering a bit of a ceiling.
The 50-week EMA is just above the $4,200 level, and if we can break above there, then it's possible that we could really break out. If we break down below the $4,000 level, then it opens the possibility of an even bigger drop. In the meantime, it looks like we continue to just get strangled by the idea of the Middle East causing chaos.
USD/JPY
The US dollar has plummeted against the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan has gotten involved in the markets yet again, intervening. But just like we've seen a couple of times before, there are people out there willing to jump in and buy dollars. The interest rate differential continues to pay you, so most traders are aware of the carry trade aspect of this market.
It's worth noting that the 158¥ level has offered a significant amount of support, as it was a significant resistance barrier previously. The 50-week EMA is sitting just below there, and it's likely that we will continue to look at that as a bit of a trend line as well.
I have no interest whatsoever in shortening this market, and I do think that given enough time we will see a recovery. That doesn't mean it will be easy. That doesn't mean that it will be quick. But with this, I think you've got a situation where the size of the candlestick is somewhat impressive, but it's not the first time we've seen this.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has fallen against the Mexican peso for the week, and the 17.50 level continues to be a bit of a barrier. The 17.20 level underneath is significant support, and I think ultimately this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back-and-forth noise.
And I think really at this point in time, range-bound traders will continue to prefer to trade this market, I think essentially to the downside because the interest rate differential still favors Mexico.
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USD/CAD
The US dollar had initially tried to rally against the Canadian dollar for the week, only to turn around and drop. The 1.40 level is an area that has been important multiple times, and I think this is a situation where we are sitting on top of an area that was significant resistance previously.
And if we could look at this as a market that is still supported until we break down below the 1.3950 level, because if we do break down below there, then it could send the market much lower.
DAX
The German DAX rallied significantly during the trading week, testing the recent highs yet again, but ultimately it looks like we are looking at the 26,000 level as a major barrier. If we can get above there, then it's possible that the DAX really takes off.
In that environment, the market breaking above the 26,000 level allows the DAX to really continue the overall upward momentum. With Germany likely to spend a lot of money fiscally and flood the market with liquidity, it makes sense that we would have short-term buying opportunities every time we drop, with the 25,000-level offering a bit of a floor.
Bitcoin
The Bitcoin market has fallen during the week as interest rates continue to keep it somewhat under pressure, as we are consolidating near the $63,000 level. The $60,000 level is a bit of a floor that I think you need to pay close attention to, as it has been so important and it's a large, round, psychologically significant figure that is obviously a major factor going forward.
If we can break above the 200-week EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $72,000 level.
Silver
The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, with the $60 level offering a bit of a ceiling. I think as long as interest rates remain elevated, this is going to be a difficult market to strengthen significantly.
But if we break down below the $55 level, it could open up a drop down to the $50 level.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 got crushed this week, only to turn around and show signs of life again, forming a massive hammer candlestick once we got through Thursday and Friday.
If the 28,500 level is likely to break above, then the 30,000 level would be targeted. The 27,000 level looks to be a bit of a floor now, and ultimately, I think this is a market that buyers continue to jump in on every dip.
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