The euro drifted a little lower on Friday against the Australian dollar again, as we are looking to test major support.
EUR/AUD
The euro continues to drift lower against the Australian dollar during the trading session on Friday as we are stretching towards a major support area that sits right around the 1.61 level.
The area at the 1.61 level extends down to the 1.60 level as far as major support when you look at the past price action. If the market were to bounce from here, it would just be a simple continuation of what we had seen.
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Quite frankly, I think one of the biggest problems now is that the European Union may or may not be able to have energy for the winter, and that could be a major problem for the euro.
Technical Analysis
It certainly looks as if the market is oversold, though, and when you look at the Stochastic Oscillator, we are in an oversold condition and getting ready to see a moving average crossover.
This suggests to me that maybe we will see a little bit of a bounce, but if we do not, then it would be a major sign as to where we may go next. I think we would probably try to dig through that support level and then eventually break out to the downside underneath the 1.60 level. To the upside, we could bounce all the way to the 1.63 level rather quickly.
In general, this is a pair that has been negative, but the market continues to see a lot of questions asked about risk appetite, and if gold gets a bit of a bid, that could make this even more bearish if money starts running to Australia as a proxy. Regardless, this is a downtrend that we've been in for a while. It's worth noting that the 1.60 level, which is the bottom of the overall consolidation area, matters all the way back to the middle of 2023. So if we were to see that fall through that level, this market could really fall apart.
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