Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 62,000.
Add a stop-loss at 66,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 66,000.
Add a stop-loss at 62,000.
Bitcoin continued its stagnation this week, as US bond yields jumped and as ETFs recorded their largest outflows since June after a strong start of the month. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 64,000 on Tuesday, up slightly from its lowest level this month.
Bitcoin’s consolidation has coincided with the ongoing stock market rally, with the S&P 500 Index jumping to a record high. In a statement on Monday, analysts at Evercore said that the index may jump to $9,000 by the end of the year. Recently, there are signs that investors are rotating from Bitcoin to the stock market where returns are doing better.
The BTC/USD pair is also wavering as ETFs lose momentum. After starting the month well, these funds had over $389 million in outflows last week, the worst performance in months. They have now had over $463 million in inflows this month.
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Bitcoin is also reacting to the performance of the bond market, where yields have moved upwards this month. The 30-year bonds are now yielding 5.318%, its highest level in years. This rally may continue rising in the coming months as the total US debt approaches the $40 trillion metric. There is a risk that Japan, one of its biggest holders, will continue selling as the Japanese yen falls.
The BTC/USD pair will next react to an upcoming meeting between President Donald Trump and some of the top executives in the industry. He will meet top officials from companies like Ripple Labs, Coinbase, and Robinhood, who will likely push him on the CLARITY Act that has stalled in the Senate. Odds of this bill passing into law have dropped substantially on Polymarket.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair was trading at 64,088, a few points above this month’s low of 62,358. It remains inside the narrow range it has been in the past few months.
The pair has moved to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has formed an important resistance. The risk, however, is that it has slowly formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, a popular bearish reversal.
Therefore, there is a risk that the pair will resume the downward trend, and possibly retest its neckline at 62,358. A move below that level will point to further downside, potentially to the support of 60,000.
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