EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
Overall Trend: Still bearish.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1370 – 1.1320 – 1.1280
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1455 – 1.1520 – 1.1600
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1345 with a target of 1.1430 and a stop-loss at 1.1300
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1530 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1600
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
Ahead of the announcement of the details of the important US employment report later today, Thursday, the exchange rate of the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) is stabilizing bearishly around and below the 1.1400 support level. As is well known, jobs and inflation figures determine the future of the US Federal Reserve's policies, and amid strong expectations of imminent monetary policy tightening by the bank, the US Dollar has remained the stronger currency against the Euro and other major currencies recently.
According to the technical outlook, the general trend of the Euro against the US Dollar remains bearish, and stabilization around and below the 1.1400 support level will continue to confirm the strength of the sellers' control over performance, preparing for stronger bearish breakouts until the technical indicators reach oversold levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving near the 36 level, reflecting the continuation of negative momentum as the pair approaches the oversold zone without fully entering it, leaving the door open for further decline before strong reversal signals appear. Furthermore, the MACD indicator continues to issue negative signals, with the main line remaining below the signal line, reinforcing the likelihood that the bearish trend will continue in the short term.
Conversely, a bullish scenario for the Euro against the US Dollar requires a breakout first into the vicinity of the resistance levels of 1.1520 and 1.1600, respectively.
In general, if the US jobs data comes in stronger than expected, the Dollar could gain more momentum, opening the way for the Euro to test support levels at 1.1370 and then 1.1320. However, if the data comes in weaker than expected, the pair could witness a rebound toward the 1.1455 resistance level before targeting 1.1520.
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Euro Consolidates as European Inflation Recedes
Across the best licensed trading platforms, the Euro maintained its stability against major currencies after the latest inflation data in Germany and France showed signs of easing price pressures—a development that may give the European Central Bank (ECB) more room to assess the path of monetary policy without changing its hawkish tone so far.
Preliminary data showed that the annual inflation rate in Germany slowed to 2.3% in June, compared to 2.6% in May. The European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also fell to 2.4%, driven by lower prices for energy, goods, food, and transport, signaling a widening slowdown in inflation within the Eurozone's largest economy.
Despite these positive indicators, the picture in the Eurozone remains mixed. Inflation rose to 3.2% during May, supported by a jump of over 10% in energy prices, while core inflation rose to 2.6%, reflecting continued price pressures in the services sector and some other sectors.
In contrast, France and Italy recorded an increase in inflation rates compared to previous months, highlighting the differing pace of recovery among Eurozone economies and the impact of rising energy costs on each country.
ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the recent decision to raise interest rates was based on inflation forecasts rather than as a precautionary measure, noting that inflation risks, especially those related to energy, still require close monitoring, despite long-term inflation expectations remaining stable near the 2% target level.
With the ECB Forum kicking off in Sintra this week, investors are eagerly awaiting any new signals regarding the future of monetary policy. Expectations indicate that bank officials will continue to adopt a cautious, hawkish approach, keeping open the possibility of implementing an additional interest rate hike if inflationary pressures persist.
Overall, the Euro remains supported by receding inflation in some major economies; however, the ECB's continued cautious stance will remain the most influential factor in the European currency's direction in the coming period.
Trading Advice:
The euro may remain under selling pressure until the market reacts to today's US economic data releases. Regardless of your buy or sell convictions, strict risk management is essential.
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