Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 has been very noisy this week as we continue to look for some type of clarity. All things being equal, I think this is a market that remains bullish overall, but we have a lot of headline risks out there that could cause some issues. Because of this, I am very cautious about getting aggressive here.
I recognize that we are in an uptrend, and that should remain, but as we head into the weekend, there will be concerns about potential headlines from the Middle East that could derail some of the excitement. Nonetheless, when I look at the Nasdaq from a longer-term perspective, it appears that anytime this market falls, it will offer a significant opportunity to buy some type of bounce.
Gold
The gold market spent the beginning part of the week falling pretty significantly, and in fact, even tested the crucial $4,000 level. This is an area that I think is pretty important in general and will have to be watched closely. With that being said, you should also keep in mind that the gold market is heavily influenced by interest rate movements, and for what it's worth, interest rates are drifting a bit lower as traders are betting on the Americans and the Iranians getting closer to a deal.
I am bullish on gold in the long term, but I recognize that volatility will continue to be a problem. If we were to break down below the $4,000 level, we could see a significant sell-off, so be aware of that.
Silver
The silver market has been noisy in general during the trading week, but we are looking at the $60 level as a potential floor in the market. The weekly candlestick is starting to form a bit of a hammer, and it's probably worth noting that a lot of the bullish behavior was the result of Friday gapping higher.
That, more likely than not, was short covering heading into the weekend. If we can break above the $70 level, then I think silver probably picks up another $10 pretty quickly.
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DAX
The German DAX fell during the course of the week to test the €24,000 level but turned around to show signs of life. At this point, I think we're going to continue to bounce around between the €24,000 level on the bottom and the €25,000 level on the top, with the €25,000 level being a bit of a barrier that I think extends to about €25,250.
I would look at the DAX as a market that you buy on dips, but I'm not expecting huge moves here. I think we're still trying to build up enough momentum to take off to the upside.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 fell a bit during the week, but it looks like the 7,300 level is going to continue to offer support, as we have seen multiple times in the past. Ultimately, the 7,500 level above is a bit of a barrier, but it's really when we break above the 7,600 level that I think the S&P 500 takes off.
I still like the idea of buying dips in this market, but we are in the midst of summer, and a lot of people are concerned about the situation not only in the bond market but in the Middle East, so we may get some choppiness. But I'm still bullish on this market. It's still in an uptrend, and really not much has changed other than we have slowed down.
EUR/USD
The Euro spent the week rallying against the US dollar, but I think it's still stuck in a bit of a quagmire. The 1.16 level is basically fair value in a 250-point range that goes back to July 2025.
So, I anticipate we probably make a move towards the middle of the range again, right around the 1.16, maybe 1.1650 region, and then we'll have to ask further questions. Pay attention to the 10-year yield in the United States. If it starts to rise, this pair, more likely than not, will fall.
USD/JPY
The US dollar had a sideways week against the Japanese Yen as we are threatening to try to break out above a 1990 swing high. We did peek above there in 2024 for a few minutes, basically, but now the question is whether the intervention by the Bank of Japan that occurred 5 or 6 weeks ago will continue to deter the market. I don't think it will eventually.
Short-term pullbacks continue to offer buying opportunities as the interest rate differential favors the US dollar, and right now, I think it's probably only a matter of time before we break loose. If the Bank of Japan does intervene, that ends up being a buying opportunity a day or two later.
USD/MXN
The US dollar fell against the Mexican Peso, which makes perfect sense as the 17.50 level has been a bit of a ceiling. The 17 level underneath is an area that I think is significant support. And it is because of this that I think we probably continue to go sideways.
Interest rate differential, of course, favors Mexico, so I prefer to fade short-term rallies, but I'm not looking for anything big here. I think there are still far too many questions out there about risk appetite and supply chains to get aggressive with an exotic currency pair like the Peso.
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