Silver
Silver jumped right off the bat when the Monday session started, as traders are starting to celebrate the idea of an extended peace agreement possibly coming down the road between the Iranians and the Americans. Supposedly, on Friday, we will see an extension of the ceasefire terms and a framework from which to progress, and if that does, in fact, lead to peace, then obviously that would be very strong.
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It could send interest rates much lower, and that helps silver because it is a non-yielding asset. Interest rates did drop during the session, right in line with silver rallying, so I think it all comes together quite nicely. In general, I do think that silver will be very difficult to get aggressive in because all it would take is 1 headline out there to turn things around, so in this environment, caution is the better part of valor.
Technical Support and Consolidation Range
The $70 level looks very much like an area that's attracting a lot of attention, and if we were to fall back below it I think that could signify that we're just not quite ready to take off to the upside. If we pull back and break below the 200-day EMA would not surprise me at all to drop towards the $64 level. Any sign that peace is not going to be a thing in the Middle East probably sends silver much lower. If we do take off from here, the 50-day EMA at basically the $75 level could be your target. After that, you would have $80.
From a longer-term standpoint, I think it makes sense that we bounced where we did last Thursday, as the $60 level has been important multiple times and could in fact be the bottom of a potential consolidation range that extends all the way to $90. If we can get peace, I think silver goes much higher simply because there's much more demand than there is.
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