The gold market continues to see a bit of a change at the moment, as we see the interest rates in America no longer moving things. However, the $4000 level is a massive floor.
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The gold market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and fill that gap, but then started to fall. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see downward pressure despite the fact that interest rates are dropping. That's interesting to me because it is a little bit of a switch in attitude.
Recently, we have seen higher rates and lower gold, but now it just seems like lower gold is the answer. I think we probably see this market go looking to the $4,000 level before it's all said and done in this market.
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It's also worth noting that the Friday session is the Juneteenth holiday in the United States, and that means that there will be limited trading. And at this juncture, I think you probably see a little bit of follow-through, but I would not look for massive moves in the short term.
Short-term rallies, I think, face the 200-day EMA above as it is an area that's been important. Ultimately, signs of exhaustion, I think, are getting sold into. But if we start to see the US dollar fall significantly, that could help gold going forward, but we will see.
All things being equal, this is a market that continues to be noisy, but until something meaningfully changes, I think gold continues to look a little suspicious. Long-term, I like gold. I just think that we are still working off that massive parabolic move that we had seen previously. The $4,000 level is very big indeed when it comes to where we are going next.
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