Bearish view
Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3350.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3550.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3550.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3350.
The GBP/USD exchange rate was unchanged on Wednesday, continuing a period of consolidation that has been going on for weeks. It was trading at 1.3465, a few points above last week’s low of 1.3367. Focus remains on the US-Iran talks and the upcoming US jobs report.
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US Jobs Report and Iran War
The GBP/USD pair has remained unchanged in the past few days. This consolidation continued on Tuesday after the US published an encouraging jobs report.
Data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of job openings jumped to over 7.618 million in April from 6.88 million in the previous month. This report was much higher than what analysts were expecting.
The next key data to watch will come out later today, when ADP releases the private non-farm payrolls data. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the economy added 116k jobs in May after rising by 109k in the previous month.
This report comes a few days ahead of the official non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to reveal that the unemployment rate remained at 4.3% as the economy created over 93k jobs in May.
The other important GBP/USD news to watch will be the latest US and UK services and composite PMI numbers. The ISM non-manufacturing and composite PMI is expected to move to 53.7 and 51.6, respectively. A PMI report above 50 is a sign that a sector is expanding.
The market will also react to the new developments in the Middle East, where the quagmire between the US and Iran has continued. The two sides have failed to reach a deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart reveals that the GBP/USD pair has slumped in the past few days, moving from last month’s high of 1.3652 to the current 1.3463. It is now consolidating at the 50-day moving average and is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The pair also remains below the Supertrend indicator, while the two lines of the MACD indicator remains below the zero line. Therefore, the pair will likely remain inside this range in the foreseeable future.
The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.3300 and 1.3600. A drop below the support at 1.3367 will confirm the bearish outlook towards 1.3300.
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