Bearish view
Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3350.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3550.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3550.
Add a stop-loss at 1.3350.
The GBP/USD pair was flat on Tuesday morning as concerns about the US and Iran ceasefire rose. It was trading at 1.3462 as focus remained on the situation in the Middle East and the upcoming US jobs report.
Top Regulated Brokers
US Jobs Data and Ceasefire Progress
The GBP/USD pair held relatively steady on Tuesday as traders reflected on the new developments in the Middle East. In a statement, Iran’s foreign ministry said that it had suspended talks with the United States, pointing to the ongoing violations.
This announcement led to a risk-off sentiment in the market, with crude oil prices and US government bonds rising. After weeks of back and forth talks between the two sides, there are now concerns that they will go back to war.
A resumption to war will lead to higher energy prices, which will change the inflation outlook. The UK and the US have reported divergent inflation numbers recently.
A recent report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that UK inflation dropped in April because of the government’s interventions. Analysts believe that the country’s inflation will start rising in the coming months.
A report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that US inflation jumped to 3.8% in April. The Producer Price Index (PPI) soared to 6% during the month. Recently, however, data showed that inflation expectations were falling.
The GBP/USD pair will react to the upcoming US jobs numbers. The first one will be the JOLTs job openings report, which will come out later today. ADP will then release the latest private payrolls report on Wednesday, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the official jobs report on Friday.
The other key numbers to watch will be the final manufacturing and services PMI numbers this week.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has moved sideways in the past few days. It was trading at 1.3465, up from last month’s low of 1.3300. It is consolidating at the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA).
The pair remains between the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement levels. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has remained at the neutral level of 50.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range in the coming days. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be at 1.3300 and 1.3600.
Ready to trade our free daily Forex trading signals? We’ve shortlisted the best UK forex broker in the industry for you.