Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 65,000.
Add a stop-loss at 55,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 55,000.
Add a stop-loss at 65,000.
The BTC/USD pair held steady above 60,000 as traders waited for the latest update from Michael Saylor’s Strategy and the upcoming US consumer inflation report. Bitcoin price rose to $62,300 from the year-to-date low of $59,200.
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Strategy Bitcoin Update and US Inflation Data
The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend in the past few months. This crash has coincided with the ongoing spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, possibly as investors rotated to the stock market. Data shows that these ETFs have shed over $3 billion in assets in May and June.
Analysts believe that the outflows happened because of the booming stock market that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices to a record highs. These indices have benefited from the ongoing AI boom, with top companies in the industries crossing the $1 trillion market cap.
The BTC/USD pair also slumped after the US published a strong non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that pushed US bond yields higher. This report showed that the economy created over 172k jobs in May, while the jobless rate remained at 4.2%.
More data released last week showed that the private sector created over 122k jobs, while the number of job vacancies rose by over 700k. These numbers mean that the economy is doing relatively well.
Therefore, US bond yields jumped as investors predicted that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates. Some analysts believe that it will deliver at least two rate jokes by mid next year.
The upcoming US consumer inflation report will provide more information about this. Economists expect the data to show that the headline CPI rose 4.2% in May, much higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2.0%.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the Bitcoin price made a strong bearish breakout in the past few months. This retreat happened after it formed a rising wedge pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. It has moved below all moving averages.
The coin is now hovering at a crucial support level that coincides with the previous year-to-date low. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the most extreme oversold level, and with the pair forming a double-bottom, there is a likelihood that the coin will bounce back. If this happens, it may climb to $65,000. However, more selling pressure below the year-to-date low may lead to more downside.
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