Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 62,700.
Add a stop-loss at 70,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
Add a stop-loss at 62,700.
Bitcoin price continued rising, reaching its highest level since June 2nd, as investors piled into risky assets following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU). The BTC/USD pair jumped to 66,600, up substantially from the year-to-date low of 59,000.
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Bitcoin Price Jumps as Risk-On Sentiment Prevails
The BTC/USD pair held steady on Tuesday, continuing the slow recovery that started on June 5 when it bottomed at 59,000. This rebound continued after Michael Saylor’s Strategy continued its Bitcoin accumulation. It bought over 1,000 coins last week, bringing its holdings to 846,842.
Strategy’s actions are watched closely because of its recent decision to sell 32 coins for the first time in years. That decision raised concerns that the biggest Bitcoin holder was starting to capitulate.
The BTC/USD pair jumped as investors cheered the potential end of the US-Iran war. The US and Iran have now reached a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that will be signed on Friday this week.
If this deal works out, it means that crude oil prices will tumble, potentially below the key support of $50. Other items like fertilizer and transportation will also continue falling, lowering the US inflation.
Such a move will make it easier for the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year. Indeed, data shows that US bond yields have continued falling this week, while the US stock market jumped to a record high.
The next important Bitcoin news will come out on Wednesday when the FOMC concludes its two-day meeting. Officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting. A dovish tone will be bullish for Bitcoin and other altcoins.
BTC/USD Forecast: Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has rebounded in the past few days. It has soared from a low of 59,000 earlier this month to 66,700 today. It moved above the crucial resistance level at 62,717, its lowest point in February this year.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed upwards. Also, the pair is attempting to cross the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a move that may confirm the bullish outlook.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will retreat and retest the key support of 62,717 as investors start booking profits. On the other hand, a move above the 50-day moving average will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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