Potential signal:
- If BTC breaks below $60,000 for more than 2 hours, I am shorting with a target of $53,000.
- I would have a stop at $62,500.
Bitcoin continues to be a very noisy market as we have seen a lot of volatility, but with this being the case, I think we've got a situation where the market breaking out of the symmetrical triangle is making it something worth watching.
Another thing that you have to pay attention to is the fact that we are heading into a weekend where headlines could throw the risk appetite all over the place. With this being the case, I think you have a scenario where this might be your first hint as to how the rest of the week goes for other assets.
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There is optimism that the situation in the Middle East may calm down, and that could perhaps drive down interest rates, and that should, at least in theory, open up the possibility of Bitcoin rallying.
Support Levels and Potential Market Trajectories
If we fall from here, the market should see plenty of support at $60,000. That being said, if we were to break down below the $60,000 level, that opens up the possibility of a drop to the $50,000 level.
I think Bitcoin is on the precipice of something big, but the question now is whether or not we can take off to the upside or we fall apart. If we can break above the $65,000 level, then I think you would have to assume the market could rally all the way to the 50-day EMA.
That being said, we have to be very cautious here. This is a market that I think is going to be very volatile, very vulnerable, and definitely sensitive to downside influences. Institutional inflows have faded again, so now we have to figure out whether or not things will get better or if we are just simply going to flounder.
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