The Australian dollar fell below the 200 Day EMA over the last 24 hours, as we continue to see the US dollar strengthen quite drastically.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar fell early on Wednesday to break through the 200-day EMA yet again. The 200-day EMA is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching very closely, but at this point, I think I am going to be focusing more on the 0.6840 level, a swing low from the beginning of April that I think will continue to be a major factor.
If the AUD/USD market can turn around and rally from here, then it's possible that we could go looking to the 0.6950 level. Breaking above the 0.6950 level opens up the possibility of a move to the 50-day EMA, which is near the 0.7050 region.
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Technical Outlook and Currency Trends
All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, and I think will continue to watch the US dollar in general. Interest rates in America have been falling, but we continue to see the US dollar strengthen against most currencies, not just the Aussie dollar.
With this being the case, I think you have to look at this as a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think we're getting pretty close to an area where either the Australian dollar has to bounce, or it's going to fall quite drastically, probably the 0.67 level initially, followed by the 0.65 level.
This has been a massive rounding top pattern playing out over the last couple of months, so this is where we have to make a bigger decision. I'll be watching the next day or two, and quite frankly, I'm okay with having a losing trade in one direction or the other because once this market decides where it's going, it should be rather obvious to where you should be trading. The next day or two could be noisy, but we're at a major inflection point, and that has
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