The Australian dollar initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday, but ended up turning around, as we have seen quite a bit of support underneath that will be a potential reason for rallying.
But when I look at the interest rates in America, if they start to fall, I think that gives the Australian dollar an even better opportunity to jump.
We are in an area that I think will continue to be important, which is just above the crucial 0.70 level. And of course, the Reserve Bank of Australia has recently raised rates, which helps the Australian dollar in general.
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RBA and the Aussie Dollar
That being said, the traders in Australia are now starting to talk about the possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia might cut interest rates, and that could help the US dollar continue to put pressure on the AUD/USD market. If this market were to fall from here, the 0.69 level is right where the 200-day EMA is presiding. The 200-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching very closely.
To the upside, the 0.7150 level is a little bit of a barrier. If we can break above there, then it's possible that we go looking to the 0.7250 level. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of buyers when we drop.
However, I also recognize that if we were to continue to drop towards the 0.69 level, then we could see this market really unwind. In that environment, I think this would kick off US dollar strength against multiple currencies, not just the Australian dollar, and you would probably be seeing interest rates jumping rather drastically. So again, watch the 10-year yield. I think that is your most important clue.
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