Bearish view
Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 70,000.
Add a stop-loss at 81,000.
Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 81,000.
Add a stop-loss at 70,000.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure this week, reaching its lowest point since May 1, down from this month’s high of $82,847. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 76,765 on Wednesday as market risks continued.
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Bitcoin Price Falls as Risks Rise
The BTC/USD pair has remained under pressure in the past few days as risks remain. One of the risks is that investors have continued dumping their Bitcoin ETFs.
Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed over $396 million this month. This is a big reversal after these coins added over $1.6 billion in the first six days of the month. The same is happening in other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Dogecoin.
Falling Bitcoin ETFs lead to more supply in exchanges. It is also a sign that demand for the coin is falling in the United States. Another sign is the ongoing falling Coinbase Premium Index, which has remained in the red in the past few months.
The BTC/USD pair has been in a strong downward trend as US government bond yields continue rising. Data shows that the short-term and long-term bond yields have jumped to the highest point in years. For example, the 30-year yield has soared to the highest point in nearly 20 years.
These bond yields signal that the Federal Reserve may maintain a highly hawkish tone even after Kevin Warsh becomes the Federal Reserve Chair on Friday. Economists now expect that the bank will even hike rates next year.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has continued moving downwards, moving from the year-to-date high of 62 current fear zone of 39. In most cases, Bitcoin tends to underperform the market when there is a sense of fear in the market.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price has crashed in the past few days, moving from a high of $82,847 to the current $76,796. It has now settled at the 50-day and 100-day moving averages.
The BTC/USD pair has moved below the lower side of the rising wedge pattern. A wedge is one of the most common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, especially if it moves below the two moving averages. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to 70,000.