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XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Market Focus on U.S.-Iran Conflict. Where are Prices Heading?

By Mahmoud Abdallah

Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of tra...

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Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

  • The Overall Gold Trend: Bearish.

  • Today's Gold Support Points: $4610 – $4560 – $4490 per ounce.

  • Today's Gold Resistance Points: $4680 – $4730 – $4780 per ounce.

Today's Gold Trading Signals:

  • Buy gold from the support level of $4580 with a target of $4700 and a stop-loss at $4540.

  • Sell gold from the resistance level of $4730 with a target of $4600 and a stop-loss at $4780.

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Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management

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Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

Weak liquidity at the start of the trading week impacted gold price movements yesterday; prices failed to break the support barrier of $4600 or the resistance level of $4706. Spot gold prices follow a similar pattern at the start of Tuesday's session, stabilizing around $4655 per ounce.

Obviously, this performance remains cautious. Gold gains have stalled due to a rebounding U.S. Dollar, intense investor risk aversion, and a renewed spike in crude oil prices. This comes as Trump set a deadline for Tuesday evening to strike vital and strategic targets in Iran if an agreement is not reached by 8:00 PM EST.

Will Gold Prices Rise in the Coming Days?

Gold analysts believe price increases may be limited as expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts diminish. Strong U.S. labor market data is keeping Treasury yields supported, which negatively weighs on gold trading. Furthermore, hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict—bolstered by ongoing diplomatic efforts—add to the uncertainty regarding gold's future.

However, commodities experts argue that geopolitical risks outside the Middle East and continuous central bank purchasing continue to support gold prices. Consequently, near-term movements depend on incoming U.S. data, Fed signals, and geopolitical developments.

Moreover, the gold market is also partially supported by central bank diversification strategies. Also, a slight decline in the dollar's value could also provide short-term support. Typically, a weaker dollar lowers the price of dollar-denominated gold for holders of other currencies.

Meanwhile, despite the recent decline in gold prices, there are early signs of investor interest in buying gold on lower prices. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rose last week for the first time since the conflict began.

A scenario of a further decline in gold prices could gain significant momentum if prices quickly return to the $4,560-$4,500 per ounce support level. The current direction of technical indicators supports this hypothesis, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral line, the MACD is trending downwards, and the moving averages support bearish control, suggesting a downward move in the coming days.

Trading Advice:

Dear TradersUp trader, we still prefer selling gold if Trump carries out his threat against Iran today. Do not take excessive risks, regardless of how strong the trading opportunity seems, and expect further price volatility in the coming period.

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Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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