The US dollar has pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Thursday to reach towards the 50 day EMA only to turn around and bounce again.
This is a market that I think is going to continue to favor buying the dips as the interest rate differential definitely favors the US dollar as the Bank of Japan is stuck with ultra-low rates.
Watch the 10 year yields in America as they rise so does the greenback especially against the Japanese yen and it's also worth noting that earlier this year we had a W pattern that measured for a move to about 166 yen. When you look at the 160.50-yen area, that's basically the 1990 swing high.
Historical Resistance and Long-Term Targets
If we get above there looking at monthly charts, you have a very realistic path to 240 maybe 245 yen. In other words, a huge move just waiting to happen. This could end up being a career making trade for some people. Short-term pullbacks I buy, I add to a position.
Top Regulated Brokers
I think the 158 yen level for now at least is the floor in the market. If we did break down below there then the 156 yen level is an area that has shown itself to be important multiple times as well. I expect a lot of choppiness, I expect a lot of volatility, but at the end of the day you could drive a truck through the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, and I just don't see that happening anytime soon.
I like the idea of owning the dollar against the yen as well as other currencies against the yen, for example, check out the Australian dollar against the yen, it looks like it wants to go. So, with all of that I remain bullish, I buy dips, I don't short.
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