Silver has fallen hard on Tuesday, as the interest rates rose due to the talks with the Iranians and Americans being put on hold.
Silver has gotten hammered during the trading session as talks between the Americans and the Iranians appear to be on hold. So, interest rates have spiked. With that being the case, it makes a certain amount of sense that traders will be very concerned about the potential risk appetite going forward.
If that ends up being the case, then silver gets hammered. It probably drops down to the $70 level relatively soon. The upside is the $82 level where we see a lot of resistance. And if we can break above there, then we can go to the $90 level.
The Geopolitical Impact on Risk Appetite
Quite frankly, we need the situation between the Americans and the Iranians to finally stop. There are a lot of games being played when it comes to talks and as long as that is the case, the war has a very high likelihood of continuing. Supposedly, the 2-week ceasefire ends sometime on Wednesday, so we will have to wait and see how that happens, but I think traders are starting to focus on the idea that maybe shots will be fired again.
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If that is the case, silver probably gets hurt. Silver eventually will rally because there is a lot of demand for silver, but right now it is all about the interest rates just destroying the silver forecast. It is a non-yielding asset, and it of course makes a huge difference in how this plays out.
Ultimately, I think the 200-day EMA will be held, but that is all the way down at roughly $65. So, we could fall somewhat significantly. Watch the 10-year yield. If it rises, silver falls. That has been the game we have been playing for a while.
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