The recent NZD/USD sell-off stalled this week as President Donald Trump moved to calm down the markets amid the ongoing US-Iran war. It was trading at 0.5750 on Thursday morning, a few pips above this week’s low of 0.5698.
New Zealand Dollar Rebounds Amid Risk-On Sentiment
The NZD/USD exchange rate rose slightly as market participants embraced a risk-on sentiment as they predicted that the ongoing US-Iran war will end soon. President Donald Trump predicted that his war will end in the next two weeks as he reiterated that Iran was calling for negotiations.
Iran has reiterated that it was not interested in having a ceasefire. Instead, the government has insisted that it wants the war in Iran and in the region to end. It also wants reparations and the US to exit the Middle East. Therefore, the war may continue for longer than Trump expects.
There will be no economic data from New Zealand in the next two days. As such, the pair will next react to the upcoming US trade and jobs data. Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the country’s exports rose to over $304 billion, while its imports rose to $364 billion, with the trade deficit rising to $60 billion.
The US will publish the latest initial and continuing jobs report. Economists expect the report to show that the initial jobless claims rose 212k last week from the previous 210k.
The other key data will come out on Friday when the US releases the official non-farm payrolls data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy created 60k jobs as the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
The three-day chart shows that the NZD/USD exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few weeks, falling from a high of 0.6092 in January to 0.5752. It has dropped below the key support level at 0.5834, its lowest level in February.
The pair has slipped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It has slumped below the Ichimoku cloud indicator.
Also, it has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are nearing their confluence.
Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range in the near term. The key support and resistance levels to watch will be 0.5600 and 0.5835.