My previous GBP/USD signal on 16th March was not triggered.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3400, $1.3371, or $1.3314.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.3453, $1.3477, or $1.3504.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
I wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast about one month ago that if the price broke above $1.3286 it would likely go on to trade as high as $1.3340 and maybe even as high as $1.3370.
This was a good and accurate call, with the price reaching $1.3340 that day and $1.3370 the next day after retesting the broken resistance at about $1.3286.
That was a while ago and things have changed. Last week saw a recovery in risk sentiment after President Trump agreed a 2-week ceasefire with Iran. This saw the US Dollar weaken over the week and more risky assets like the British Pound rise – it has been the key driver of the markets in the absence of any other meaningful data-driven surprises.
The weekend’s breakdown of Iran/USA talks in Pakistan and President Trump’s declaration that the USA will begin a naval blockade of Iran at 10am New York time today put markets in a risk-off mood at the open, with this currency pair and many other assets gapping lower. However, risk sentiment has improved as the day went on, although it is not clear why. Prediction markets expect the war to end by some time in June, but the gaps between the parties’ red lines are so wide I think the road ahead could be longer and more difficult than this, so we might see surprises to the downside.
Technically, the price opened near the support at $1.3371 and printed new support at the round number of $1.3400. The price now seems to be heading towards $1.3453. I think either this resistance level or the one just above at $1.3477 look like attractive places for short trade entries if we see a bearish failure at the first test of either level. It is quite possible the naval blockade will lead to shooting and a breakdown of the ceasefire, which would surely send the price lower here.
(image13042026gbpusd)
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/O2aAruVa/?symbol=FX%3AXAUUSD
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the GBP or the USD.
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