EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
Overall Trend: Returning to the Neutral Zone.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1640 – 1.1590 – 1.1530
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1720 – 1.1780 – 1.1840.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy Scenario:
Enter from support level 1.1590
Target: 1.1720
Stop Loss: 1.1540.
Sell Scenario:
Entry: the resistance level of 1.1750
Target: 1.1610
Stop Loss: 1.1800
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
Following the easing of tensions in the Middle East—with Trump and Iran announcing a two-week suspension of military operations pending a final agreement—the conflict's impact on crude oil prices has lessened. Previously, oil had surged to record levels, threatening global inflation and forcing central banks to tighten policies rapidly to contain the fallout.
Top Regulated Brokers
Through top-tier trading firms, the EUR/USD exchange rate quickly rebounded to the 1.1708 resistance level—the pair's highest in over a month—before stabilizing around 1.1680 at the time of writing.
The pair will be influenced by economic releases as geopolitical tensions subside. Today, the minutes of the latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be released at 8:00 PM Egypt time, followed by the release of US inflation figures at the end of the week.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Returns to Neutral
On the daily chart, following the recent upward rebound, the EUR/USD exchange rate has returned to neutral territory, supporting bulls in achieving stronger gains if the necessary conditions for further gains are met. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 57, above the neutral line that separates buyers and sellers from the trend. The MACD indicator is rebounding upwards to confirm the shift. Breaking the psychological resistance level of 1.1800 is crucial for predicting the strength of the upward technical correction.
Obvioulsy, A technical scenario for a EUR/USD decline requires a return to the 1.1500 support level.
EUR/USD outlook amid rising energy prices:
Prior to the recent de-escalation, the EUR/USD struggled to maintain its level above 1.16, as rising energy prices and geopolitical friction pressured the Euro. With oil markets dictating short-term trends and growing concerns over weakening terms of trade, the Euro faces downside risks before a potential recovery later this year.
Global Bank Forecasts if the Crisis Persists
MUFG Bank: Sees a risk of the EUR/USD dropping back toward the 1.10 support in the near term, though they expect a rise to 1.20 by the end of 2026.
Danske Bank: Forecasts a near-term drop to 1.12, as the Euro is weighed down by poor terms of trade amid high energy costs.
Scotiabank: Predicts the EUR/USD will rise to 1.22 by the end of 2026.
Overall, the Iranian conflict will remain a key factor in the near term, especially given its impact on energy prices and the global economy.
However, Scotia Bank points to obstacles to the dollar's gains; “The long-term structural challenges facing the US dollar remain significant, and further evidence of weakness in the US labor market could force a reassessment of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In the short term, the seasonal effect on the dollar is expected to turn negative starting in April.”
Trading Advice
Dear TradersUp trader, Wait for the full market reaction to the Iran de-escalation to settle before determining the most suitable Euro/Dollar trades. Ulimitlay, avoid unnecessary risks.
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