My previous AUD/USD signal on 31st March produced a profitable long trade from the bullish bounce off $0.6834.
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7079 or $0.7100.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7026, $0.7002, or $0.6982.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast on Tuesday last week, I was expecting that the day’s pivotal point would probably be $0.6874. I was wrong about this, it was the support some 40 pips below that level which was decisive.
The technical picture has undergone a change since the Asian session yesterday when President Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire in the war with Iran. This saw an immediate recovery in risk-on assets, which still includes the Australian Dollar, while the US Dollar is more of a safe haven. This sent the price quickly and sharply higher, although not by an enormous amount (that was reserved for energies such as crude oil).
Despite this sudden rise, the jump quickly ran out of bullish momentum, as it became clear the ceasefire is very shaky with the parties not even agreeing on its major points. This means we have seen the price slowly sell off with a bit of chop, now finding some support at $0.7026 which is very confluent with the quarter-number just one pip below.
I think this level is likely to be today’s pivotal point, although the main trigger for directional price movement today will probably be the to big US economic data items due around the start of today’s New York session. If the price holds at the support until their release, and the numbers are poor for the greenback, we could expect a good long trade entry from near $0.7026.
The other interesting technical feature of today’s price chart is that above the resistance level at $0.7100, the price has more than 100 pips it could rise without meeting any more resistance levels, so a bullish break above that round number could be important – although it is practically guaranteed not to happen today.
(image09042026audusd)
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Core PCE Price Index and Final GDP data at 1:30pm London time.
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