My previous AUD/USD signal on 21st April may have produced a profitable short trade from the bearish rejection of the resistance level at $0.7183.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7183, $0.7213, or $0.7248.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7131, $0.7100, or $0.7079.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Tuesday, I wrote that the price was unlikely to do much over the near term, but a break below $0.7115 could be a bear trap triggering buying at $0.7100.
This was a good call as indeed, the price has done little but consolidate, not even touching $0.7115.
I think we are still in the same situation now that the USA has unilaterally extended its ceasefire with Iran with no public time limit. The world is still waiting to see how this turns out. There are informal indications that the war could resume over the coming weekend, which would likely trigger a substantial gap lower on Monday if this happens.
If on the other hand there is progress towards a deal, the price will probably rise and reach new 3-year highs above the recent high price beyond $0.7200.
Until we get news about the USA / Iran conflict, the best approach here will probably be to trade reversals at the extremes of the dominant range, expecting the consolidation to continue for now.
This would mean looking for a long scalp at $0.7131 and a short scalp at $0.7183.
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There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD or the USD.
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