Today’s AUD/USD Signals
My previous AUD/USD signal on 14th April was not triggered.
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7213, $0.7248, or $0.7275.
Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.7147, $0.7100, or $0.7079.
Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast two days ago, I wrote that we continuing to see bullish sentiment and price movements, as markets continued to indicate an expectation that a deal between the USA and Iran would be concluded within the coming weeks (June was seen as most likely).
This was a good call, and sentiment has in fact become even more bullish, with the price now making a new 3-year high just below $0.7200 and printing a new support level on the way up.
Prediction markets now expect a USA/Iran peace deal next month in May, while an Israel/Hezbollah ceasefire is expected by the end of April, likely within the next week.
This is driving risk-on sentiment higher and now we see the S&P 500 Index and other major global equity indices breaking out to new record highs, which is adding even more fuel to the dominant bullish sentiment. This is pushing the AUD higher and taking inflationary pressure off the Fed so that’s a bit of a dovish tilt on the USD which is sending it lower or at least preventing it from rising.
With nothing on the horizon looking likely to disrupt this mood – barring a deal breaker between the USA and Iran which could reignite the war – long trades look likely to be the better bet, so a bullish bounce in the $0.7150 area rejecting the support level confluent with that half number looks likely to be the best potential trade setup.
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There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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